This summer, the U.S. and much of the world have been pummeled byfloods,firesandheat waves. Knowing whatclimate riskscome next depends, to a large extent, on what happens in the most desolate place on Earth: Antarctica. But there's a new obstacle to understanding thechanging continentand how it's affecting weather patterns throughout the world. The National Science Foundation plans to decommission its only research icebreaker, the RVIB Nathaniel B. Palmer, while also stalling on plans to build a replacement. These actions come as the Trump administration continues to take aim at climate science by slashing science jobs, cutting grants and halting climate reports. And scientists say the moves further threaten to erode the country's research dominance, this time in the Antarctic, one of the most critical regions for studying rapid change and climate risks, like sea-level rise. Meanwhile, other countries including China and Russia are ramping up polar science and exploration, and scientists say they're concerned the U.S. is weakening its presence in a region where military might is disallowed by treaty and scientific collaboration is the means of diplomacy. "This is an abandonment of science and education, but it's also an abandonment of our place on the world stage and a retreat from leadership," said Julia Wellner, a professor of marine geology at the University of Houston, who visited the ship during an Antarctic science conference in Chile earlier this month. The White House referred NBC News to the Office of Management and Budget for questions about the polar icebreaker decision. The agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Palmer's decommissioning would leave U.S. researchers without reliable marine access to parts of Antarctica already contributing significantly to sea-level rise and where scientists are concerned about ice sheet collapse. In a statement to NBC News, the NSF said it planned to consolidate its resources and focus on maintaining the three research stations that operate year-round in Antarctica, including McMurdo, Amundsen-Scott South Pole and Palmer stations. "The USAP [U.S. Antarctic Program] maintains an active and influential U.S. presence on the Antarctic continent while enabling cutting-edge scientific research in astronomy, biology and glaciology, among other fields," an NSF spokesperson said. "To focus support on the stations and associated logistics, NSF intends to terminate the lease of the research vessel Nathaniel B. Palmer." The NSF first proposed terminating the lease this spring after the Trump administration proposed a55% budget cut for the agency, but scientists said they were dismayed that the agency had started the process of decommissioning the ship before Congress finalized a budget. "The [House and Senate] budgets are not really calling for drastic cuts to the Antarctic program," said oceanographer Carlos Moffat, an associate professor at the University of Delaware, referring to budgets advanced in both chambers' appropriations committees. The NSF said that it was trying to identify other vessels to pick up some of the Palmer's workload, and that the ship will be returned to its owner, the Louisiana-based marine transportation company Edison Chouest Offshore. In 2024, theNSF ended the charter of another Antarctic vessel, the RV Laurence M. Gould, which was not an icebreaker but was strengthened to handle some sea ice. That leaves the agency with fewer options to bolster polar oceanography research and to support Palmer station, a year-round base on the Antarctic Peninsula that has depended on those two vessels in the past. The NSF said Friday that it has "alternative means" of supporting and resupplying Palmer station, including commercial options. The 308-foot Palmer, which first sailed in 1992 and is named after a 19th-century seal captain who explored parts of Antarctica, has a crew of about 22 people. It can accommodate about 45 scientists. No other U.S. research vessel can perform all the tasks this polar icebreaker is built to accomplish. The ship is the key research tool for understanding Antarctic ecology, the carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean and the rate at which ice shelves are retreating, melting and causing sea-level rise. While satellites provide useful data about how ice sheets are growing or shrinking, Wellner said, research on these changes is primarily driven by measurements below the surface. Without that data, U.S. scientists would be left in the dark about what's happening at key ice sheets in the Southern Ocean that could determine the amount of future flooding estimated for coastal U.S. cities. For example, researchers said, no other U.S. vessel is equipped to safely visit the infamous Thwaites Glacier, also known as the "Doomsday Glacier," which is considered the linchpin to understanding sea-level rise. Researchers often describe Thwaites as the cork to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet's ready-to-drain bottle because it acts as a bulwark that prevents the sheet from collapsing into the Amundsen Sea. That could cause more than 10 feet of sea-level rise over hundreds of thousands of years. By 2100, its potential collapse could raise sea levels much higher than the roughly 1 to 3 feet that scientists already anticipated in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which would reshape U.S. coastlines. A collapse could also trigger changes to ocean circulation and how rapidly the ocean takes up carbon, an area of active research. Some studies have suggested global temperatures mighthave crossed a threshold for collapse, but more research is needed. Changes to its current mass and stability are driven by warm water eating away at its base, which is located hundreds or thousands of feet below the surface and is best accessed by robotic instruments. "In order to understand mass change, we need to be at the margin of the ice — where ice and ocean meet," Wellner said. "And that is obtained by going on this ship." Scientists typically take research trips on the Palmer every two years, Wellner said, using what data can be collected in the field over a month or two to drive research back in the laboratory. Because data collected on ships is so valuable, scientists have been pushing for more than a decade to add an icebreaker to the U.S. science fleet and reduce the yearslong backlog of researchers seeking an opportunity to do fieldwork on the Palmer. "Pie in the sky, we hoped for a ship in 2031," said Amy Leventer, a micropaleontologist at Colgate University who was involved in the design process. The NSF had slated $61 million for the planning and development of that new vessel, which it estimated would cost about $1.2 billion to construct,according to a draft bid request. Now, scientists are hoping the idea isn't dead. An NSF spokesperson said the agency "paused" the bidding process for the project, but will reconsider resuming that process during the next fiscal year. At the end of July, the agency took down a website detailing the design and construction of the ship. "FutureUSAP.gov was discontinued to save costs," the spokesperson said. Moffat said decommissioning the Palmer and pausing the push for a new ship at the same time all but ensure the U.S. will create a decadelong data gap for polar marine scientists. Scientists have rallied against the cuts. Last month, more than 170 researchers, including Moffat, Leventer and Wellner,signed a petitionaimed at reversing the decision. "It's not a faucet of water you can turn on or off," Moffat said. "Are we really going to depend on other countries to collect the observations we need to know how sea level is changing in the United States?" The scientists said they also worry the U.S. is pulling back from Antarctica at a time when other countries,like China, are investing heavily in icebreakers and polar research bases. In 1959, the U.S. helped convince other nations to set aside the continent for peaceful purposes and free, collaborative scientific research. With Cold War fears growing, it was as much an arms control measure as it was a bolster to research. "The way this neat situation in the world is maintained is by countries honoring that treaty and keeping scientific presence there," Wellner said, adding that she now fears that "if anybody ends up abandoning the treaty, we may not be there to see it happen."
