If you are hoping to make Valentine's Day dinner plans on an outdoor patio somewhere, you might want to hold off. The forecast looks less than ideal for a huge chunk of the country late this week into the weekend.
This means Valentine's Day could be a total washout for millions.
While the fine details are still uncertain, it looks as if this system will bring more rain than snow.
We will break down what we know now, then continue to tweak as the forecast becomes clearer in the coming days.
Friday
The storm system will take shape across the Southwest, as an area of low pressure tracks across the southern half of the country.
The focus on Friday will be from the Four Corners to the Southern Plains.
Winter weather will be possible for the Southern Rockies, and even a wintry mix as far south as Arizona and New Mexico. Meanwhile, showers will be possible from southern Arizona to Arkansas. The heaviest rain is expected across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. We could even see a few thunderstorms.
Saturday
As the system shifts eastward on Saturday, the impacts could be far-reaching. From the Deep South to portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley there could be rain. Thunderstorms could be possible as well, mainly across the Gulf Coast.
This includes everyone trying to get out for Valentine's Day and the more than one million people expected to fill the streets of New Orleans for Mardi Gras parades this weekend.
With the warmer than average temperatures dominating much of this region this week, the forecast for Saturday seems to be primarily liquid form, as temperatures won't be cold enough to support snow.
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However, that could change overnight.
Sunday
The most impactful day from this system could be on Sunday. The forecast calls for precipitation pretty much everywhere east of the Mississippi River.
We could see heavy rain anywhere from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast to the Ohio Valley, with thunderstorms possible across the Southeast.
The system will also begin to tap into colder air, meaning we could see winter weather around the Snow Belts and even into the Northeast.
Folks along the busy I-95 corridor need to pay attention to how this forecast evolves, because there's a chance we could see another round of snow or a wintry mix from Washington to Boston.
Why There's Uncertainty
As I mentioned earlier, there's quite a bit of uncertainty with this forecast. We know there will be impactful weather, just knowing exactly who will see what is the challenge.
The reason for this is the uncertainty in exactly how far north or south the low will track.
If the low tracks further to the north, then it will be able to tap into colder air, which means we will see more ice and snow for the northern cities.
If the low takes a more southern track, then it will encounter warmer air, and therefore, the storm will be more of a rainmaker than a snowmaker.
Regardless, if you live in the eastern half of the country, make sure you have a Plan B for any outdoor weekend plans, as it might make more sense to have a cozy Valentine's Day indoors this year.
Jennifer Grayis a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.
